It now seems that last weekend's headlines suggesting that
John Major would call a general election if he lost next Wednesday's Commons
vote on the Maastricht Bill were the result of a misunderstanding.
We were assured this week that he had not intended to give
the impression to "senior officials" travelling with him on his trip
to Egypt that defeat would mean going to the country for the second time in a
year.
What he (and they) meant to convey, explained the self-same
"senior officials" unashamedly, was simply that a defeat on
Maastricht would be terribly serious. Mr Major would rather go for an election
than give up the Tory leadership to some anti-Maastricht figure. An early
election was not on the cards, they told journalists.
Nevertheless, the frisson of excitement that all those
headlines sent down spines throughout Britain was significant. There is
undoubtedly a growing feeling in the country that Mr Major and his government
have run out of steam and that a general election should take place sooner
rather than later.
It is easy to see why. In the past six months, Mr Major and
his team have shown themselves to be incompetent almost beyond belief. Instead
of the recovery we were promised, Britain has suffered ever-deepening
recession. Redundancies were making news even before the shocking announcement
that 30,000 jobs would go in the pits.
Instead of a strong currency in the exchange rate mechanism
and zero inflation, Mr Major has presided over withdrawal of sterling from
the ERM and a 20 per cent devaluation
which will inevitably cause import prices to rocket.
The government's economic strategy is in tatters and Mr
Major is giving the impression of having no idea of what to do next, apart
from pinching a few ideas from Labour's economic policy. Tory backbenchers are
in open revolt over Europe. Public confidence in the government has
collapsed.
In the circumstances, Labour should have no hesitation in
going all out to force the government into an early election.
Voting against the government next Wednesday, on a
Maastricht paving motion or an adjournment debate, makes perfect sense. There
is a real but slim chance that, with the Tories in disarray, defeat for the government
could panic Mr Major to gamble on going to the polls.
At the same time, however, it is crucial both that Labour
recognises that its efforts might not have the effect that it wants and that
the party does nothing that compromises its integrity as a pro-European party.
No one should be too down-hearted if the attempt to bring
the government down does not come off this time
– and the message that Labour sees Europe as the key to its alternative
economic policy must be heard loud and clear above the hubbub of parliamentary
manoeuvring.
